CIO View | Kames Capital Conversations

Please confirm your location and profile

Back

Wichtige Informationen

Ich bestätige, dass ich ein Professioneller Investor in Österreich bin und dass ich die wichtigen Informationen, Datenschutzbestimmungen und Bedingungen, die die Nutzung dieser Website regeln, gelesen und verstanden habe.

Risikohinweis
Kapitalrisiko. Der Wert von Anlagen kann steigen oder fallen und wird nicht garantiert.

Wichtige Informationen

Wenn Sie Retailanleger sind, empfehlen wir Ihnen, eine qualifizierte Finanzberatung einzuholen, bevor Sie Anlageentscheidungen fällen.

Sie können sich die aktuellen Prospekte, Konten, wichtige Hinweise für Anleger und Fondspreise unter https://www.fundinfo.com/de/home beschaffen. Wählen Sie bitte das Land aus, in dem Sie leben, und geben Sie sich als Privatanleger zu erkennen.

Risikohinweis

Kapitalrisiko. Der Wert von Anlagen kann steigen oder fallen und wird nicht garantiert.

Important information

I confirm that I am a Professional Investor based in Belgium and that I have read and understood the important information, privacy policy and terms and conditions which governs the use of this website.

Risk Warning
Capital at risk. The value of investments may go up or down and is not guaranteed.

Important information

If you are a retail investor we recommend that you take qualified financial advice before making any investment decisions.

You can obtain the latest prospectus, accounts, Key Investor Information and fund prices at https://www.fundinfo.com/en/home. Please select the country you live in and identify yourself as a private investor.

Risk Warning

Capital at risk. The value of investments may go up or down and is not guaranteed.

Informations importantes

Je confirme que je suis un Investisseur Professionnel basé en France et que j'ai lu et compris l'information importante, la politique de confidentialité et les termes et conditions qui régissent l'utilisation de ce site.

Avertissement concernant les risques

Capital exposé au risque. La valeur des placements peut évoluer à la hausse ou à la baisse et n’est pas garantie.

Wichtige Informationen

Ich bestätige, dass ich ein Professioneller Investor bin, der in Deutschland ansässig ist und dass ich die wichtigen Informationen, Datenschutzbestimmungen und Bedingungen, die die Nutzung dieser Website regeln, gelesen und verstanden habe.

Risikohinweis
Kapitalrisiko. Der Wert von Anlagen kann steigen oder fallen und wird nicht garantiert.

Wichtige Informationen

Wenn Sie Retailanleger sind, empfehlen wir Ihnen, eine qualifizierte Finanzberatung einzuholen, bevor Sie Anlageentscheidungen fällen.

Sie können sich die aktuellen Prospekte, Konten, wichtige Hinweise für Anleger und Fondspreise unter https://www.fundinfo.com/de/home beschaffen. Wählen Sie bitte das Land aus, in dem Sie leben, und geben Sie sich als Privatanleger zu erkennen.

Risikohinweis

Kapitalrisiko. Der Wert von Anlagen kann steigen oder fallen und wird nicht garantiert.

Important information

I confirm that I am a Professional Investor based in Guernsey and that I have read and understood the important information, privacy policy and terms and conditions which governs the use of this website.

Risk Warning
Capital at risk. The value of investments may go up or down and is not guaranteed.

Important information

I confirm that I am a retail investor based in Guernsey and that I have read and understood the important information, privacy policy and terms and conditions which governs the use of this website.

Risk Warning
Capital at risk. The value of investments may go up or down and is not guaranteed.

Important information

I confirm that I am a Professional Investor based in Ireland and that I have read and understood the important information, privacy policy and terms and conditions which governs the use of this website.

Risk Warning
Capital at risk. The value of investments may go up or down and is not guaranteed.

Important information

I confirm that I am a retail investor based in Ireland and that I have read and understood the important information, privacy policy and terms and conditions which governs the use of this website.

Risk Warning
Capital at risk. The value of investments may go up or down and is not guaranteed.

Important information

I confirm that I am a Professional Investor based in Italy and that I have read and understood the important information, privacy policy and terms and conditions which governs the use of this website.

Risk Warning
Capital at risk. The value of investments may go up or down and is not guaranteed.

Important information

I confirm that I am a retail investor based in Italy and that I have read and understood the important information, privacy policy and terms and conditions which governs the use of this website.

Risk Warning
Capital at risk. The value of investments may go up or down and is not guaranteed.

Important information

I confirm that I am a Professional Investor based in Jersey and that I have read and understood the important information, privacy policy and terms and conditions which governs the use of this website.

Risk Warning
Capital at risk. The value of investments may go up or down and is not guaranteed.

Important information

I confirm that I am a retail investor based in Jersey and that I agree to and will comply with the terms and conditions of use of this website.

Risk Warning
Capital at risk. The value of investments may go up or down and is not guaranteed.

Important information

I confirm that I am a Professional Investor based in Luxembourg and that I have read and understood the important information, privacy policy and terms and conditions which governs the use of this website.

Risk Warning
Capital at risk. The value of investments may go up or down and is not guaranteed.

Important information

If you are a retail investor we recommend that you take qualified financial advice before making any investment decisions.

You can obtain the latest prospectus, accounts, Key Investor Information and fund prices at https://www.fundinfo.com/en/home. Please select the country you live in and identify yourself as a private investor.

Risk Warning

Capital at risk. The value of investments may go up or down and is not guaranteed.

Important information

I confirm that I am a Professional Investor based in Malta and that I have read and understood the important information, privacy policy and terms and conditions which governs the use of this website.

Risk Warning
Capital at risk. The value of investments may go up or down and is not guaranteed.

Important information

I confirm that I am a retail investor based in Malta and that I have read and understood the important information, privacy policy and terms and conditions which governs the use of this website.

Risk Warning
Capital at risk. The value of investments may go up or down and is not guaranteed.

Important information

I confirm that I am a Professional Investor based in the Netherlands and that I have read and understood the important information, privacy policy and terms and conditions which governs the use of this website.

Risk Warning
Capital at risk. The value of investments may go up or down and is not guaranteed.

Important information

If you are a retail investor we recommend that you take qualified financial advice before making any investment decisions.

You can obtain the latest prospectus, accounts, Key Investor Information and fund prices at https://www.fundinfo.com/en/home. Please select the country you live in and identify yourself as a private investor.

Risk Warning

Capital at risk. The value of investments may go up or down and is not guaranteed.

Important information

I confirm that I am a Professional Investor based in Portugal and that I have read and understood the important information, privacy policy and terms and conditions which governs the use of this website.

Risk Warning
Capital at risk. The value of investments may go up or down and is not guaranteed.

Important information

I confirm that I am a retail investor based in Portugal and that I have read and understood the important information, privacy policy and terms and conditions which governs the use of this website.

Risk Warning
Capital at risk. The value of investments may go up or down and is not guaranteed.

Important information

I confirm that I am a Professional Investor based in Spain and that I have read and understood the important information, privacy policy and terms and conditions which governs the use of this website.

Risk Warning
Capital at risk. The value of investments may go up or down and is not guaranteed.

Important information

If you are a retail investor we recommend that you take qualified financial advice before making any investment decisions.

You can obtain the latest prospectus, accounts, Key Investor Information and fund prices at https://www.fundinfo.com/en/home. Please select the country you live in and identify yourself as a private investor.

Risk Warning

Capital at risk. The value of investments may go up or down and is not guaranteed.

Important information

I confirm that I am a Professional Investor based in Sweden and that I have read and understood the important information, privacy policy and terms and conditions which governs the use of this website.

Risk Warning
Capital at risk. The value of investments may go up or down and is not guaranteed.

Important information

I confirm that I am a retail investor based in Sweden and that I have read and understood the important information, privacy policy and terms and conditions which governs the use of this website.

Risk Warning
Capital at risk. The value of investments may go up or down and is not guaranteed.

Important information

I confirm that I am a Professional Investor based in Switzerland and that I have read and understood the important information, privacy policy and terms and conditions which governs the use of this website.

Risk Warning
Capital at risk. The value of investments may go up or down and is not guaranteed.

Important information

If you are a retail investor we recommend that you take qualified financial advice before making any investment decisions.

You can obtain the latest prospectus, accounts, Key Investor Information and fund prices at https://www.fundinfo.com/en/home. Please select the country you live in and identify yourself as a private investor.

Risk Warning

Capital at risk. The value of investments may go up or down and is not guaranteed.

Important information

I confirm that I am a Professional Investor based in the United Kingdom and that I have read and understood the important information, privacy policy and terms and conditions which governs the use of this website.

Risk Warning
Capital at risk. The value of investments may go up or down and is not guaranteed.

Important information

I confirm that I am a institutional investor based in the United Kingdom and that I have read and understood the important information, privacy policy and terms and conditions which governs the use of this website.

Risk Warning
Capital at risk. The value of investments may go up or down and is not guaranteed.

Important information

I confirm that I am a individual investor based in the United Kingdom and that I have read and understood the important information, privacy policy and terms and conditions which governs the use of this website.

Risk Warning
Capital at risk. The value of investments may go up or down and is not guaranteed.

Important information

I confirm that I am a institutional investor based in the United States and that I have read and understood the important information, privacy policy and terms and conditions which governs the use of this website.

Risk Warning
Capital at risk. The value of investments may go up or down and is not guaranteed.

The views below are that of Kames Capital the portfolio manager
Get the latest from Kames Capital
Description of image
Education

CIO View

By Stephen Jones, Chief Investment Officer

Probably the only thing that went to script in markets in 2018 was that the US Federal Reserve delivered its series of quarterly rate hikes; everywhere else market expectations were sorely challenged. Attempting to predict what may happen in 2019, then, is a daunting task.

Oil prices have tumbled of late, bolstering worries about fading global demand most evident in sluggish growth across the Eurozone and a Chinese economy that seems stubbornly resistant to both fiscal and monetary stimulation. In addition, Japan has been hit by natural disasters that saw its economy contract in Q3, only compounding the structural issues faced by the Japanese economy. The US economy looks to be coming off the boil after a decade-long boom. If this continues, 2019 looks set to offer investors slim pickings.

However, while the US economy may be slowing, it is still growing at a 2.6% annualised rate, 0.8% above the trend potential and the envy of everyone else. US corporate profits are still growing strongly. The Chinese authorities won’t be denied the recovery in growth that they seek. The UK government is embracing fiscal expansion and should, eventually, reach the end of the Brexit process. Central bankers in Europe and Japan are tempering their ambitions to normalise local monetary policy. In many major economies wages are at last growing in real terms, offering support to consumption. Furthermore, concerns that inflation would push higher that led to an historic ‘short’ in US bonds proved misplaced; inflation, everywhere, is well-behaved. Finally, there is hope that the Fed may call a time-out to their hiking plans, while the US and China seem to be finding some common ground. After a torrid autumn, risk markets may regain enough composure over the winter to carry them well into next year.

One challenge that equity investors faced last year was stretched valuations. The combination of recent price weakness and a stand-out year for earnings delivery has seen equities de-rate significantly to levels that are well below historic averages. Valuation is no longer an obstacle to ownership, especially with earnings forecasts through 2019 remaining robust. If the US continues to cool, that should allow emerging markets scope to exploit cheap ratings.

With the adoption of pro-cyclical fiscal policies becoming increasingly popular, and US deposit rates now above 2%, bond bears will hope things go their way in 2019. While this is possible, the global economy and financial markets still face numerous challenges, many of which should support a risk-hedge bid to bonds. One caveat is that credit spreads look tight, even after their recent sell-off.

Closer to home, the most obvious of challenge is Brexit, which looks set to dominate the headlines over the remaining winter months. Encouragingly, there seems considerable pent-up demand in the UK economy and the same, probably, for UK equity markets and sterling. While our politicians have it in their power to unlock this demand, they could also create a crisis. Markets have concerns over the economic implications of a ‘hard’ Brexit but this looks discounted. More difficult to price is the uncertain impact of the Labour Party’s radical policy platform. If a bad Brexit looks like spawning a Labour Government, then the most prudent action may be to look elsewhere. 

Overall, by the end of 2019 I may become more fearful of the trends discussed here. In the meantime, I continue to favour equities over bond markets over cash; within equities, I see best value in the UK (politics permitting) and the US. 

Sign up to Kames Conversations newsletter

Keep up to date with our latest views by signing up to receive our email alerts.

Sign up